Botswana’s government is forecasting a recovery in the diamond market later this year, and a consequent expansion of the country’s economy.
It shrank by 3.1 per cent in 2024, but according to vice president and finance minister Ndaba Gaolathe it is now expected to grow 3.3 per cent in 2025.
“This growth outlook is premised on recovery of the diamond industry, which is expected in the latter part of 2025, and continued positive sentiment in the non-diamond mining sectors,” he said yesterday (10 February) in his budget speech for 2025/26.
Diamonds account for around 80 per cent of Botswana’s export earnings and a third of total budget revenues.
De Beers and the Botswana government have finally reached agreement on the long-term mining and rough sales deals.
But their joint venture Debswana reported sales for the first three quarters of 2024 were down by 52 per cent.
In December, Gaolathe warned that Botswana’s economy could contract by 1.7 per cent during 2024 as a direct result of the diamond. Slump.
But he predicted better times ahead, with an expected rebound in the diamond market driving overall growth in 2025.
Video grab shows finance minister Ndaba Gaolathe delivering his 2025/26 budget.
De Beers, long associated with the glamour of natural diamonds, is now grappling with a fading shine. The rise of lab-grown diamonds, which have gained popularity among millennial and Gen Z consumers in India and worldwide from the US to China poses a significant challenge.
Lab-grown diamonds offer several advantages: they are 60-75% more affordable than natural diamonds, and as mass production increases, prices continue to drop. Moreover, they share the same chemical composition as natural diamonds and are visually indistinguishable to the naked eye.
New rules announced by US Customs and Border Protection (CBP) will require all diamond importers to declare the country of origin of all goods.
The move, to be implemented in April, is aimed at enforcing sanctions on Russian diamonds.
Importers have been required, since last March, to certify that their goods are not Russian, but not to disclose where they are from.
The G7 nations – including the US and EU – imposed a ban on Russian diamonds of 1 carat or more from March 2024 and on goods of 0.5 carats or above from September 2024.
Despite the sanctions, Russia is still thought to be exporting 40 per cent of its diamonds output because they are below the size threshold or industrial quality.
The US Customs and Border Protection (CBP) said in a statement that it plans to start collecting additional data in April on jewelry imports (and seafood) requiring filers to provide the country of mining.
They’ll be required to upload a PDF document on official company letterhead to CBP’s automated commercial environment (ACE) document image system.
The requirement applies to both loose diamonds and jewelry containing diamonds. Jewelry imports without diamonds are exempt.
The carat size threshold is not mentioned in the CBP announcement.
Anglo American expects its De Beers diamond business to record an impairment amid declining diamond sales.
The London-listed miner announced Thursday that it will review De Beers’ value as it looks to exit the business, citing persistently weak diamond demand. Last year, Anglo reduced De Beers’ book value by $1.6 billion to $7.6 billion.
De Beers rough diamond production decreased by 26% to 5.8 million carats in 2024, compared to the previous year. The 2025 production guidance has been revised to 20–23 million carats, down from the previous estimate of 30–33 million carats. Anglo anticipates a marginal loss for the diamond business in 2024.
The mining giant put the world’s largest diamond producer up for sale last year as part of its portfolio simplification following a tentative takeover bid from BHP (ASX: BHP).
Anglo chief executive officer Duncan Wanblad stated earlier this week that the company plans to exit De Beers by the end of the year.
In November, Anglo announced agreements to sell its steelmaking coal business for up to $4.9 billion, with the Peabody transaction expected to close by the third quarter of 2025.
Additionally, the company completed a second bookbuild offering of Anglo American Platinum shares.
2024 production On Thursday, the company reported that all of its businesses met their full-year production guidance.
It produced 773 kt of copper in 2024, aligning with its 730-790 kt guidance range, with the Quellaveco mine in Peru achieving its strongest quarter of the year in Q4.
“Our forward production guidance is unchanged in copper with growth in 2026 driven by higher grades in Chile, with this production level then maintained in 2027,” said Wanblad.
“We continue to set up the copper business for growth in subsequent years with the resumption of the smaller plant at Los Bronces and through debottlenecking at Collahuasi,” he said.
Anglo’s Minas-Rio iron ore operation in Brazil set a record, producing 25 million tonnes for the year, contributing to the company’s total iron ore production of 60.8 million tonnes in 2024.
“The key focus for the market has been on copper and production came ahead of expectations, with a strong result from Los Bronces, and guidance for FY25 remains unchanged,” RBC Capital Markets analysts commented in a note.
“However, not much good news beyond that with weak realised pricing in both iron ore and copper.”
Anglo American shares rose more than 5% in London trading following the results. The company has a market cap of £32.9 billion ($40.9 billion).
A high-profile Indian delegation led by Shri R. Arulanandan, Director, Department of Commerce, Government of India actively participated in the “Opportunities in India” event, hosted by the Consulate General of India in Cape Town and the Government of India. The event was held on the sidelines of the prestigious Mining Indaba 2025.
The delegation, which included Shri Rajat Wani, Regional Director – Surat, GJEPC, highlighted the potential of Special Notified Zones (SNZs) for diamonds in Mumbai and Surat, focusing on their role in simplifying trade processes. Stressing the need to reduce the number of intermediaries in the diamond value chain, they underscored the importance of facilitating more direct trade of rough diamonds between India and African mining nations.
Direct auctioning of diamonds in SNZs was presented as a mutually beneficial strategy. Such a framework would enable African mining countries to secure higher returns on their diamond exports while allowing Indian buyers greater access to competitively priced rough diamonds.
The discussions also explored the necessity of consignment exports, a move that could align with African nations’ policies, such as “temporary export” mechanisms. The Indian delegation expressed optimism about overcoming logistical and regulatory challenges, ensuring a streamlined process that benefits all stakeholders.
De Beers, the world’s leading diamond producer by value, has concluded negotiations with the Botswana government on a new sales agreement and the extension of mining licenses for their joint venture, Debswana, until 2054.
The finalized agreement, the Anglo American unit said on Monday, follows discussions aimed at setting a new framework for the sale of rough diamond production from Debswana, a 50:50 partnership between De Beers and Botswana. The deal also secures the renewal of Debswana’s mining licenses, which were previously set to expire in 2029.
“Until the execution of these new agreements, the terms of the existing agreements will continue to remain in effect,” the diamond producer said.
Currently, 75% of Debswana’s diamond output is sold to De Beers. In 2023, the two parties reached a provisional 10-year agreement under which Botswana’s share of production was set to gradually increase to 50%.
The accord also established that Botswana’s state-owned diamond trading company was expected to receive 30% of Debswana’s production.
The government would also secure 10 billion pula ($712 million) in development funding as part of the deal. However, the deal stalled under the leadership of former President Mokgweetsi Masisi.
In January, newly elected President Duma Boko announced that his administration had reached an agreement with De Beers. Botswana, the world’s largest producer of rough diamonds by value, depends on the industry for the majority of its national revenue.
This new agreement comes at a pivotal time for De Beers as parent company Anglo American plans to spin off the diamond business through either a sale or an initial public offering. Analysts have noted that current depressed diamond prices may complicate efforts to finalize such a transaction.
Botswana remains a cornerstone of De Beers’ operations, accounting for 70% of its annual rough diamond supply. The government also holds a 15% stake in De Beers, underscoring the importance of the long-standing partnership between the two parties.
A diamond bracelet gifted by Michael Jackson to Elizabeth Taylor sold for $147,000, almost double its high estimate.
The diamond line bracelet, set with 27 graduated radiant-cut yellow-tinted diamonds was expected to fetch $61,000 to $86,000 (£50,000 to £70,000).
It sold on 30 January at the Woolley & Wallis auction house, in Sailsbury, southern England.
Taylor (who died in 2011) and Jackson (who died in 2009) were close friends for many years. Taylor was godmother to Jackson’s children Paris and Prince, and Jackson, the King of Pop, gifted her a number of jewelry pieces over the years. Among them was this bracelet, with a central diamond weighing 3.38 carats.
The bracelet was sold previously in December 2011, for $182,500, at Christie New York’s The Collection of Elizabeth Taylor. It raised $116m (way beyond its $20m estimate) and broke the record for any collection of jewelry sold at auction.
Marielle Whiting, jewelry specialist at Woolley & Wallis, described the bracelet as a “beautiful and highly wearable diamond bracelet with truly legendary provenance that continues to live on”.
India has been emerging as a bright spot for the cut and polished diamonds amidst a slowdown in key markets such as the US and China, Amit Pratihari, managing director, De Beers India told Reuters on Wednesday.
India is the world’s largest centre for cutting and polishing diamonds, accounting for nine out of 10 diamonds polished globally, according to Indian government data.
However, the country’s cut and polished diamond exports fell this year because of weak demand from China and the US, forcing the industry to focus on the growing domestic market that surpassed China last year to become the world’s second-largest.
“China has completely slowed down in the luxury segment … We see India growing very strongly,” Pratihari said in an interview.
De Beers, a unit of Anglo American, is the world’s top diamond producer by value and India’s number one supplier of rough diamonds.
However, there were some early signs of recovery in the US and “big growth” in the Middle East, Pratihari said.
“In next couple of months, we expect recovery,” he said.
Weak exports demand for polished diamonds forced Indian processors to trim imports of rough diamonds by 22% to $7.9 billion during April to December, according to India’s Gem and Jewellery Export Promotion Council (GJEPC).
De Beers is adjusting prices of rough diamonds to support the midstream industry – companies that buy rough diamonds from miners and sell them after cutting and polishing to retailers – in the face of polished diamond prices falling more than those of rough diamonds, he said.
“Miners are controlling the supply so more rough does not come into the market that would put additional pressure on the polished prices. But the pressure on polished prices is in midstream as in retail there is no change,” he said.
India’s cut and polished diamond exports fell by 8.3% to $9.76 billion in April-December compared with the 2023 period, according to GJEPC.
Gem Diamonds today (29 January) reported a dip in quarterly revenue but a year-on-year increase of 10 per cent, boosted by a flurry of high-value recoveries.
The UK-based miner sold $152.8m of rough in 2024, compared to $139.4m in 2023. Sales in Q4 last year were $32.2m, down almost 25 per cent on Q3.
Gem’s Letseng mine, in Lesotho, is the highest dollar per carat kimberlite diamond mine in the world.
During the year Gem sold 13 +100-cts diamonds recovered during the year, compared with just five the previous year.
The mine has averaged eight +100-cts since it started operations 17 years ago.
Six diamonds sold for more than $1m during Q4, the company said, contributing $11.6m. The highest price achieved in the quarter was $45,077 per carat for a 3.52-carat pink diamond.
Average price per carat during FY2024 was $1 ,334, a 4 per cent increase on the previous year. Th e number of carats recovered fell 4 per cent to 105,012.
Botswana and De Beers are reportedly on the brink of signing a critical and long-awaited sales agreement that was due for renewal back in June 2023.
Botswana’s new President Duma Boko told reporters last Thursday (23 January) he was hoping it would happen as early as Friday, although as of Sunday (26 January) there was still no confirmation.
Boko, speaking at the World Economic Forum’s annual meeting in Davos, Switzerland, said there was just some “tidying up” left, according to a Reuters report.
The deal, which would see Botswana’s share of diamonds from the Debswana joint venture increase from 25 per cent to 50 per cent over the next decade, was agreed in principle by Boko’s predecessor Mokgweetsi Masisi after he repeatedly threatened to walk away from it.
But the actual deal, with all the small print, was never signed. The deal also extends mining licenses until 2054 and commits De Beers to invest up to $825m over 10 years to help develop Botswana’s economy.