Diamond output for De Beers slumped 23 per cent in the first quarter, as production was cut in response to a slow recovery in demand amid a pullback in luxury spending and the proliferation of lab-grown equivalents.
De Beers was the only unit of Anglo American to adjust its full-year production forecast on Tuesday, reducing its guided range to 26mn to 29mn carats of output, from 29mn to 32mn, and lifting expected average costs to $90 per carat, from $80.
Anglo American said the diamond market was suffering from a price rout caused by excess piles of inventory, something that De Beers has previously acknowledged is partly down to lab-grown diamonds cannibalising demand for mined stones.
“Ongoing uncertainty around economic growth prospects has led to a continued cautious purchasing approach” by its customers, Anglo American said. “The recovery in rough diamond demand is expected to be gradual through the rest of the year,” it added.
De Beers said a nascent recovery had begun in the first quarter, buoyed by improved demand for diamond jewellery around Christmas and new year in the US.
Diamond producers including De Beers’ arch-rival, Russia’s Alrosa, tried to curb the flow of gemstones into the market in the second half of last year. The Indian government even put on a voluntary import moratorium on rough stones in the final quarter to protect its polishers and cutters.
Despite those continued efforts into this year, demand, prices and the market recovery remains sluggish, Anglo said, requiring further action to be taken to reduce supply.
Anglo American chief executive Duncan Wanblad has been under pressure to improve performance since a production downgrade in December sent shares tumbling, although it has been aided by higher commodity prices, especially for copper.
Wanblad has said that “nothing is off the table” when it comes to asset sales or other options to restructure units, of which De Beers and the platinum group metals division are the most troubled.
“We are progressing through our asset review to optimise value by simplifying and improving the overall quality of the portfolio,” he said in a statement in the first-quarter production update on Tuesday.
Shares in Anglo American dropped 1.7 per cent in early trading in London and remain about a third lower than they were at the start of 2023.
Besides diamonds, the London-based company managed to maintain its guidance across its other commodities such as copper, iron ore and steelmaking coal.
Copper output jumped 11 per cent to 198,100 tonnes, helped by record throughput at its Quellaveco mine in Peru and higher grades at its Chilean mines Collahuasi and El Soldado.
South Africa, where Anglo American has iron ore, steelmaking coal and platinum mines, has become an increasing drag on production because of crippling problems in the logistics and power sector. Rail constraints resulted in a 2 per cent drop in output at Kumba Iron Ore.
It’s 50 years since the world’s largest octahedral diamond was recovered, and even today it remains uncut, unpolished and unsold.
The 616-carat Type 1 yellow diamond, dates back to 17 April 1974 and comes from the Dutoitspan Mine in Kimberley, South Africa, which opened in the 1870s and closed in 2005.
The miner who found the diamond, De Beers employee Abel Maretela, was rewarded with a large bonus and a house.
Al Cook, De Beers Group CEO, was shown the diamond on a visit to Johannesburg, by Moses Madondo, CEO of De Beers Group managed operations.
“I’m a geologist so I love to learn about the history of diamonds even before they were found,” he said in a LinkedIn post.
“This is a Type 1 diamond which means that it was formed around 150 km below the earth’s surface, deep in the mantle, over 1 billion years ago.
“During the Cretaceous period, about 100 million years ago, a kimberlite volcano brought this diamond up to the earth’s surface. Its beautiful yellow colour comes from nitrogen atoms that were trapped inside the carbon lattice when it was forming in the mantle.”
Industry veteran Stuart Brown, who has led multiple diamond-mining companies, will become chairman of the board at Lucapa Diamond Company.
Brown spent 20 years at De Beers, with stints as both interim CEO and chief financial officer. He was also the head of Firestone Diamonds from 2013 to 2018, and CEO of Mountain Province for three years, Lucapa said Monday.
During his time at Firestone, he raised $225 million to develop the Liqhobong mine in Lesotho, Lucapa noted. He is currently a director of Ukrainian iron-ore miner Ferrexpo and of Digby Wells Environmental Holdings, a provider of environmental, social and governance (ESG) consulting services to the mining industry.
In addition, Ronnie Beevor will take a seat on the board. He has experience in investment banking and mining, having been the head of Rothschild Australia. He is currently a director of Canadian iron-ore miner Champion Iron and Canadian explorer Mount Royal Resources. He serves as chairman of gold explorer Felix Gold and has recently retired as chairman of Bannerman Energy.
Meanwhile, Ross Stanley has resigned from Lucapa’s board, the company added.
The Group of Seven (G7) import restrictions targeting Russian diamonds will have a detrimental impact on Botswana’s diamond trade and may reverse the gains the country has made in recent years, government officials told Rapaport News.
The proposal to create a single-node location through which all diamonds should pass to verify G7 compliance would be a logistical nightmare for producer countries, Lefoko Moagi, Botswana’s minister of mineral resources, green technology, and energy security, said in an interview.
“It creates added time in terms of processing our diamonds and it affects our beneficiation trajectory,” Moagi explained. “This may bring about added costs and unintended consequences that will affect the producer countries.”
In December, the G7 — which comprises Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, the UK, and the US, as well as the European Union — announced new restrictions to prevent the flow of Russian diamonds to their markets. The measures include a ban on direct imports of diamonds from Russia, taking effect at the beginning of the year. From March 1, the sanctions were extended to Russian-origin diamonds polished in a third country, which prompted each G7 nation to issue interim guidelines requiring self-certification by members of the trade declaring their goods did not originate in Russia.
A blockchain-enabled traceability system will be implemented in the final stage on September 1, which the European Commission stipulated will require verification of the diamonds in Antwerp.
Systems in place Botswana is concerned such a system will result in delays and additional costs, and consequently slow down the development of its own trade.
The government is petitioning the G7 to allow such verification to take place in the producer countries, particularly in Botswana, since it can easily adjust its processes to meet the G7 requirements, noted Emma Peloetletse, permanent secretary to the president, in a separate interview.
“Why not build on what already exists, because we have it?” she contended.
The government hosted the G7 working committee in January to demonstrate its systems and to convince the group that a local registration point can be trusted without fear of contamination by Russian goods.
“The G7 working group was shocked to see our robust systems,” Peloetletse said. “These took years of work and investment to develop.”
She expressed frustration at the lack of engagement by the G7 following the visit and that the working group didn’t have the answers to Botswana’s questions.
Risk to the economy As a nonaligned nation, Botswana is not opposed to the sanctions, Peloetletse stressed. The country is primarily concerned about the effect their implementation will have on its diamond industry, and subsequently on the economy, she added.
Diamond mining accounts for an estimated 20% of gross domestic product (GDP), while diamond cutting, polishing, and trading makes up about 5%, according to local economist Keith Jefferis, managing director at econsult Botswana.
The domestic economy was estimated to grow 3.2% in 2023, Finance Minister Peggy Serame said in her budget speech on February 5. That represents a slowdown from 5.5% growth in 2022, reflecting “the relatively weak performance of diamond trading and mining activities throughout 2023,” she explained.
Serame projected the economy would grow 4.2% in 2024, but noted several risks that could reverse such gains. Among them are those from within the diamond industry, particularly in the beneficiation subsector, “which would be worsened by the G7 plan to verify the origin of non-Russian goods through diamond certification in Antwerp,” the minister said.
After the De Beers high The government continues to rely on diamonds to elevate the standard of living in the country and expects its new sales agreement with De Beers, announced last June, will be a catalyst for continued economic growth.
“Diamonds are something we guard with our lives, given what it has done for Botswana and what it can still do for the country,” Moagi said. “That resonated throughout our negotiations with De Beers. There was a meeting of minds with them to reach an agreement that can really boost the economy.”
The agreement will see state-owned Okavango Diamond Company (ODC) increase its share of local production from 25% to 50% over the next decade. That will enable ODC to introduce contract sales and subsequently designate rough for beneficiation — something it has been unable to do with its current auction-only sales channels.
The government wants more diamonds to be manufactured in Botswana and views that program as a path to encourage local entrepreneurship in the diamond trade, Moagi explained. ODC is planning to include an allocation for citizens to incubate local diamond manufacturers looking to develop in the beneficiation sector, he continued.
The deal also marked the establishment of the Diamonds for Development Fund (DDF) as a way to enable entrepreneurship both within and outside the diamond industry, the minister explained.
While the De Beers agreement left the government on a high, the G7 plans burst its bubble, Peloetletse added. “Now, when we are supposed to reap what we have sowed, we get this,” she said. “It has left us very anxious about our prospects.”
African lobby The concern is shared by other producer countries. Botswana President Mokgweetsi Masisi met with his counterparts in Angola and Namibia in late February and sent a joint letter to the G7 leaders outlining their concerns. Their sentiment was echoed by the African Diamond Producers Association (ADPA), which emphasized the negative economic consequences the G7 measures would have on the entire diamond supply chain.
“In the absence of proper consultation with African producers, it is concluded that the G7 restrictions on diamonds will disrupt the current supply chains and the fundamental business model of the diamond sector by introducing segregation requirements,” the ADPA said in its February 29 statement.
Minister Moagi is hoping for stronger engagement with the G7 decision-makers, rather than just the working committee. There is a sense that not all G7 members agree with the proposed approach to implementation, and that the African producers can leverage their position to negotiate a more practical approach, he said.
Brace for the worst Ultimately, the African producers, and Botswana in particular, want a stronger say in how their production is handled and leveraged.
While giving license to others to tell the Botswana story, there has been a realization that those outsiders have their own agenda, Peloetletse said. “There is nobody who can tell our story better than us,” she stressed, while referencing the country’s path toward independence as a former British protectorate.
In a similar tone, Moagi stressed that from Botswana’s perspective this is more than an economic issue: “It is an assault on our democracy and the sovereignty of countries,” he cautioned. Peloetletse added that the G7 sanctions constitute just one example in which Botswana is still trying to exert its independence.
Other battles include the reclamation of land from foreign entities, after the government in November set aside BWP 1.4 billion ($102.6 million) for the acquisition of 45,000 hectares in the country’s Northeast District from British-registered Tati Company. While Tati’s status as the largest private landowner in Botswana stems from a 1911 allocation, the recent deal sparked a debate about why the country should pay such a hefty price for its own land.
The government is also engaged in a battle over its wildlife policy as European legislators attempt to ban the import of animal-trophy hunting products from the country. With the largest herd of elephants in the world, and an oversupply of game, the country must manage its ecosystem and incentivize communities to coexist with the animal population, Peloetletse explained. The government has granted the rural communities quotas for trophy hunting, arguing that banning the practice would greatly affect the livelihoods of their residents.
The convergence of these issues, and most notably the potential impact of the G7 sanctions on its diamonds, has left the government feeling uneasy and uncertain how to move forward, said Peloetletse, whose role is to advise President Masisi.
“We have to brace for the worst-case scenario because it’s not clear the G7 is willing to listen or know what it means to our economy,” she said. “Once you close the diamond tap, and the tourism tap, then we’re done, and that’s not what Botswana wants. We aspire to be a high-income country. We want to liberate ourselves.”
Anglo American has announced the value of rough diamond sales (Global Sightholder Sales and Auctions) for De Beers’ second sales cycle of 2024, amounting to US$430 million.
The provisional rough diamond sales figure quoted for Cycle 2 represents the expected sales value for the period and remains subject to adjustment based on final completed sales.
Al Cook, CEO of De Beers, said: “I’m pleased to see a further increase in demand for De Beers rough diamonds during the second sales cycle of 2024. However, ongoing economic uncertainty in the US has led to retailers restocking conservatively after the 2023 holiday season. Consumer demand for diamond jewellery is growing in India but remains sluggish in China. Overall, we expect that the ongoing recovery in rough diamond demand will be gradual as we move through the year.”
Sarine recorded a $2.8m loss for 2023 as it battled macro-economic challenges in China and beyond, as well as increasing disruption from lab growns.
The Israel-based diamond tech business made an $8.8m profit the previous year. Revenue for 2023 was down 27 per cent to $42.9m.
Sarine said sales of equipment and the recurring scanning revenues that came from them had been hit by lower consumer demand and manufacturers’ reduced polishing activities.
Sales to India, its biggest single market by far, fell 27 per cent to $22m.
However it did sound a note of optimism after a “challenging year”, suggesting that a sharp fall in lab grown retail prices could lower retailers’ margins and make them less attractive.
“While it may be too early to call this a new trend, the slowdown could indicate that the natural diamond and LGD segments of the diamond jewellery market are reaching a new equilibrium,” the company said.
Sarine said it had launched its Most Valuable Plan (MVP) for the optimal planning of small rough diamonds and had adapted rough planning technologies to lab growns to attract new customers and generate additional recurring revenues.
Geologists from ETH Zurich and the University of Melbourne have established a link between diamond occurrence and the mineral olivine.
In a paper published in the journal Nature Communications, the scientists explain that their method will simplify the detection of diamond deposits. The process relies on the chemical composition of kimberlites, which occur only on very old continental blocks that have remained geologically unchanged for billions of years, predominantly in Canada, South America, central and southern Africa, Australia and Siberia.
According to the study’s lead author, Andrea Giuliani, olivine is a mineral that makes up around half of kimberlite rock and consists of varying proportions of magnesium and iron. The more iron olivine contains, the less magnesium it has and vice versa.
“In rock samples where the olivine was very rich in iron, there were no diamonds or only very few,” Giuliani, who has been studying the formation and occurrence of the gemstones since 2015, said in a media statement. “We started to collect more samples and data, and we always got the same result.”
His investigations ultimately confirmed that olivine’s iron-to-magnesium ratio is directly related to the diamond content of the kimberlite. Giuliani and his team took these findings back to De Beers, who had provided them with the kimberlite samples. The company was interested and provided the scientific study with financial support and asked the researchers not to publish the results for the time being.
A slow, repetitive process In 2019, Giuliani moved from Melbourne to ETH Zurich and, supported by the Swiss National Science Foundation, began to look for explanations for the connection between olivine’s magnesium and iron content and the presence of diamonds.
With his new colleagues, he examined how the process of metasomatism, which takes place in the earth’s interior, affects diamonds. In metasomatism, hot liquids and melts attack the rock. The minerals present in the rock react with the substances dissolved in the fluids to form other minerals.
The geologists analyzed kimberlite samples that contained olivines with a high iron content—and hence no diamonds. They discovered that olivine becomes richer in iron in the places where melt penetrates the lithospheric mantle and changes the composition of mantle rocks significantly. And it is precisely in this layer, at a depth of around 150 kilometres, that diamonds are present.
The infiltration of the melt that makes olivine richer in iron destroys diamonds. If, on the other hand, no or only a small amount of melt from underlying layers penetrates the lithospheric mantle and thus no metasomatism takes place, the olivine contains more magnesium—and the diamonds are preserved.
“Our study shows that diamonds remain intact only when kimberlites entrain mantle fragments on their way up that haven’t extensively interacted with previous melt,” Giuliani said.
A key point is that kimberlites don’t normally reach the earth’s surface in one go. Rather, they begin to rise as a liquid mass, pick up fragments of the mantle on the way, cool down and then get stuck. In the next wave, more melt swells up from the depths, entrains components of the cooled mantle, rises higher, cools, and gets stuck. This process can happen multiple times.
“It’s a real stop-and-go process of melting, ascent and solidification. And that has a destructive effect on diamonds,” Giuliani noted. If, on the other hand, conditions prevail that allow kimberlites to rise directly to the surface, then this is ideal for the preservation of the gemstones.
De Beers is already using olivine analysis Olivine analysis is as reliable as previous prospecting methods, which are mainly based on the minerals clinopyroxene and garnet. However, the new method is easier and faster: it takes only a few analyses to get an idea of whether a given kimberlite field has diamonds or not.
“The great thing about this new method is not only that it’s simpler, but also that it finally allows us to understand why the previous methods worked,” Giuliani said. “De Beers is already using this new method.”
Botswana has designated BWP 890 million ($65 million) from its new fiscal 2024-2025 budget for the purchase of a 24% stake in Belgian manufacturer HB Antwerp.
The deal, which it first announced in March, calls for the African country to supply rough from state-owned Okavango Diamond Company (ODC) to HB Botswana for five years. The partnership would operate in a similar fashion to HB’s previous supply deal with Lucara Diamond Corp, enabling Botswana to retain a share of the polished profits.
Lucara terminated its rough-supply agreement with HB in September, citing a “material breach of financial commitments” by the Belgian manufacturer as the reason for the split. That decision came on the heels of HB’s departure from cofounder and managing partner Oded Mansori, whom it has since reinstated to his original role.
There was media speculation late last year that the Botswana government was pressuring Lucara to reconnect with HB, and that the split could affect Botswana’s interest in the manufacturer. Lucara owns the Karowe mine in Botswana. The miner has since announced that it planned to form new supply deals with other vendors.
De Beers’ prices fell last year as a prolonged oversupply in the midstream and economic challenges weighed on demand.
The company’s rough-price index, which reflects like-for-like values, dropped 6% for the 12-month period, parent company Anglo American reported Thursday.
Sales volume slipped 19% to 27.4 million carats, with the average selling price sliding 25% to $147 per carat. While the company has not published its full-year revenue, rough sales decreased 36% to $3.63 billion, according to data from De Beers’ 10 sight reports for 2023.
Output for the year was down 8% to 31.9 million carats as the company transitioned its Venetia deposit in South Africa to underground mining and processed lower-grade ore from its Canadian and Namibian sites, outweighing an increase in Botswana.
In the fourth quarter, sales volume plunged 63% year on year to 2.7 million carats, while production declined 3% to 7.9 million carats.
“De Beers offered full flexibility for rough-diamond allocations…as sightholders continued to take a cautious approach to their purchasing during the quarter as a result of the prevailing market conditions and extended cutting and polishing factory closures in India,” the company noted. “De Beers was loss-making in the second half of 2023 owing to the subdued sight sale results, reflecting conditions of cyclical lows driven by the prevailing macroeconomic environment. Whilst there has been some improvement coming into 2024, the prospects for economic growth remain uncertain and it may take some time for rough-diamond demand to fully recover.”
The miner expects to produce between 29 million and 32 million carats in 2024. However, it has cautioned that it “will assess options to reduce production in response to prevailing market conditions.”
One of the most famous red diamonds from Brazil is “The Moussaieff Red” which was discovered by a Brazilian miner named Ze Tatu in the state of Minas Gerais.
It is a 5.11 carat, Internally Flawless, Fancy Red diamond which weighed 13.90 carats in the rough — a true treasure from the Brazilian diamond legacy.
