Botswana’s diamond stockpile has surged to almost double its targeted inventory levels as the global slump in gem prices shows little sign of easing, underscoring the mounting pressure on the world’s second-largest diamond-producing nation by volume.

According to Botswana’s Ministry of Finance, the country held an estimated 12 million carats of diamonds at the end of December 2025, nearly twice the government’s allowable inventory threshold of 6.5 million carats. The elevated stockpile reflects weak demand, subdued pricing, and limited scope for increasing production in the near term.

Botswana’s economy is forecast to contract by nearly 1% in 2025, following a 3% decline in 2024, with the downturn largely attributed to the collapse in diamond prices. The market has been weighed down by a surge in lab-grown diamond supply, cautious consumer spending, and softer demand across key luxury markets.

The price weakness has already had tangible operational consequences. Debswana, the 50:50 joint venture between the Government of Botswana and De Beers that accounts for roughly 90% of the country’s diamond sales, was forced to temporarily suspend production at several mines last year in response to unfavourable market conditions.

Despite these challenges, Botswana produced 18 million carats in 2024, second only to Russia, according to data from the Kimberley Process Certification Scheme. However, the finance ministry cautioned that elevated inventory levels will limit any meaningful increase in output until stockpiles are reduced closer to minimum allowable levels.

“This suggests that, over the short term, production is expected to remain broadly unchanged, until inventories are drawn down, creating room for additional production,” the ministry stated in its 2026/27 Budget Strategy Paper. As a result, economic growth will remain constrained unless the non-mining sectors deliver stronger performance.

Diamonds remain the backbone of Botswana’s economy, typically contributing around one-third of national revenues and approximately 75% of foreign exchange earnings. However, external pressures are compounding domestic challenges. Botswana’s diamond exports to the United States are now subject to a 15% tariff, while the prospect of higher tariffs in other major consuming markets, including India, risks prolonging the downturn in prices and compressing industry margins.

“These developments may ripple through to mining operations,” the ministry warned, noting that any sustained slowdown in diamond production would directly reduce government fiscal revenues.

Reflecting the sharp decline in sales, Botswana’s mineral revenues are projected to fall to 10.3 billion pula ($729 million) in 2025/26, well below the historical annual average of 25.3 billion pula. The figures highlight the scale of the challenge facing both the diamond sector and the broader economy as Botswana navigates a prolonged period of market weakness.

For the global diamond industry, Botswana’s swelling stockpile serves as a stark indicator of the structural pressures reshaping the market — from shifting consumer preferences to the growing impact of lab-grown alternatives — and reinforces the importance of restoring balance between supply and demand.