Botswana’s government is forecasting a recovery in the diamond market later this year, and a consequent expansion of the country’s economy.
It shrank by 3.1 per cent in 2024, but according to vice president and finance minister Ndaba Gaolathe it is now expected to grow 3.3 per cent in 2025.
“This growth outlook is premised on recovery of the diamond industry, which is expected in the latter part of 2025, and continued positive sentiment in the non-diamond mining sectors,” he said yesterday (10 February) in his budget speech for 2025/26.
Diamonds account for around 80 per cent of Botswana’s export earnings and a third of total budget revenues.
De Beers and the Botswana government have finally reached agreement on the long-term mining and rough sales deals.
But their joint venture Debswana reported sales for the first three quarters of 2024 were down by 52 per cent.
In December, Gaolathe warned that Botswana’s economy could contract by 1.7 per cent during 2024 as a direct result of the diamond. Slump.
But he predicted better times ahead, with an expected rebound in the diamond market driving overall growth in 2025.
Video grab shows finance minister Ndaba Gaolathe delivering his 2025/26 budget.
De Beers, the world’s leading diamond producer by value, has concluded negotiations with the Botswana government on a new sales agreement and the extension of mining licenses for their joint venture, Debswana, until 2054.
The finalized agreement, the Anglo American unit said on Monday, follows discussions aimed at setting a new framework for the sale of rough diamond production from Debswana, a 50:50 partnership between De Beers and Botswana. The deal also secures the renewal of Debswana’s mining licenses, which were previously set to expire in 2029.
“Until the execution of these new agreements, the terms of the existing agreements will continue to remain in effect,” the diamond producer said.
Currently, 75% of Debswana’s diamond output is sold to De Beers. In 2023, the two parties reached a provisional 10-year agreement under which Botswana’s share of production was set to gradually increase to 50%.
The accord also established that Botswana’s state-owned diamond trading company was expected to receive 30% of Debswana’s production.
The government would also secure 10 billion pula ($712 million) in development funding as part of the deal. However, the deal stalled under the leadership of former President Mokgweetsi Masisi.
In January, newly elected President Duma Boko announced that his administration had reached an agreement with De Beers. Botswana, the world’s largest producer of rough diamonds by value, depends on the industry for the majority of its national revenue.
This new agreement comes at a pivotal time for De Beers as parent company Anglo American plans to spin off the diamond business through either a sale or an initial public offering. Analysts have noted that current depressed diamond prices may complicate efforts to finalize such a transaction.
Botswana remains a cornerstone of De Beers’ operations, accounting for 70% of its annual rough diamond supply. The government also holds a 15% stake in De Beers, underscoring the importance of the long-standing partnership between the two parties.
Botswana’s president Duma Boko, who swept to power in October elections, said his government has reached a diamond extraction and sales agreement with De Beers that will bring certainty to the gem-dependent economy.
Terms were finalized by midnight on Jan. 24 and will be announced soon, Boko said in an interview on Tuesday. The southern African nation is the world’s biggest producer of rough diamonds by value and the industry generates the bulk of its income. Most of Botswana’s gems are mined by Debswana, a venture between Anglo American Plc’s De Beers unit and the government.
“The issue with De Beers has been settled,” Boko said in Dar es Salaam, Tanzania, where he is attending an energy conference. He indicated last week at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, that an agreement was imminent, and said he had followed through on his commitment to conclude it.
During his election campaign, Boko was critical of his predecessor Mokgweetsi Masisi’s handling of talks with De Beers to renew the more than half century alliance between Botswana and the world’s largest diamond firm. Masisi had caused De Beers to consider walking away from the deal, Boko said, and he sought to reopen talks.
Boko’s Umbrella for Democratic Change coalition unseated Masisi’s Botswana Democratic Party, which had led the country since independence from the UK in 1966.
The new agreement had not resulted in “any major changes, just a little tweaking of things here and there,” he said.
Under the provisional terms of a 10-year accord announced by Botswana’s previous administration in July, the state-owned diamond trader was to get 30% of Debswana’s output, while the government would secure 10 billion pula ($720 million) in development funding.
De Beers didn’t immediately respond to a request for comment.
An arid, underdeveloped nation at independence, Botswana has leveraged the discovery of diamonds in 1967 to build itself into the richest country per capita on Africa’s mainland, according to the World Bank.
Lab threat Still, a prolonged slump in the global diamond market and a challenge from lab-grown gems has hurt its economy. Boko said the agreement will restore certainty and economic growth will follow.
The country will focus on promoting its gems as natural and charging a premium for their provenance, marking them to show they have been mined in the country and their sale promotes development, he said. Diamond revenues in some other parts of Africa have been used to finance conflict.
“We appreciate the threat posed by lab-grown diamonds. I don’t want to give them the privilege of calling them diamonds. Diamonds are natural,” he said. “We will then market our diamonds in terms of their provenance and of the story behind the diamond.”
Botswana Diamonds has analysed and evaluated nearly 400 000 km of airborne geophysical and other exploration data using AI techniques and powerful computing, which would otherwise have been too big for timely analysis by humans.
In particular, the company has identified seven significant kimberlite targets on existing licences that have not been reported before.
The AI programme has also revealed compelling polymetallic targets in areas that are currently unlicensed.
Work is ongoing on these new areas of interest which now focuses on four main deposit types and 11 subtypes. These deposit types include elements such as gold, copper, silver, nickel, zinc and platinum group metals.
Botswana Diamonds used UK-headquartered Planetary AI’s ‘Xplore’ mineral prospectivity platform to perform the detailed analysis.
Xplore Platform is software that enables targeting of any element based on a plethora of geological and topographic information.
Botswana Diamonds chairperson John Teeling comments that these discoveries, in a few short months, are a major step forward in mineral exploration. One anomaly is especially intriguing to the company and the AI programme has reinforced the company’s belief that more diamond mines will be discovered in Botswana.
The company currently operates three diamond mines in Botswana and it also holds assets in South Africa.
Canada’s Lucara Diamond has dug up a 1,094 carat diamond from its Karowe mine in Botswana.
This is the sixth diamond weighing more than 1,000 carats to be recovered at the mine, and it comes only weeks after the recovery of a 2,492 carat diamond the second-largest diamond ever recovered.
“This remarkable stone bears striking similarities to the 692 carat diamond announced in August 2023, which was polished by HB Antwerp and yielded polished diamonds that sold for in excess of $13 million,” the company said in a press release.
“This newly recovered 1,094 carat stone will also be polished by HB Antwerp, as part of the ongoing partnership between the two companies,” Lucara said.
The Karowe mine has produced several large diamonds in recent years, including the 1,758-carat Sewelô in 2019, the 1,109 carat Lesedi La Rona in 2015, and the 813 carat Constellation, also in 2015. The mine is also credited for having yielded Botswana’s largest fancy pink diamond to date, the Boitumelo.
Botswana is the world’s largest producer of diamonds, and the trade has transformed it into a middle-income nation.
Karowe remains one of the highest margin diamond mines in the world, producing an average of 300,000 high value carats each year.
Shares of Lucara rose 8% by 11:40 a.m EDT in Toronto. The miner has a market capitalization of C$221 million ($162 million).
Botswana intends to renegotiate its proposed purchase of a stake in Belgian gem dealer HB Antwerp to double the size of its shareholding at no extra cost following the downturn in the diamond market, the country’s mines minister said on Tuesday.
Botswana is the world’s biggest diamond producer by value, meaning its economy has been disproportionately hit by a drop in demand for diamonds caused by a global economic slowdown.
Lefoko Moagi told Parliament the weaker diamond market had also affected the company’s valuation, giving the country room to renegotiate.
“We will not be injecting more capital, but we will get more shares for the same amount proposed in 2023,” Moagi said. “Instead of the 24%, we will negotiate to get 49.9% for the same amount initially proposed.”
Finance ministry budget documents showed in February that the country had set aside 890 million pula ($65.95 million) for the 24% stake, valuing the Belgian company at about $275-million.
The HB Antwerp deal was announced during Botswana’s negotiations for a new sales contract with Anglo American’s diamond unit De Beers in March 2023.
As Botswana sought to increase its power to market its stones outside a decades-old agreement with De Beers, it said the HB Antwerp deal would strengthen its presence in the downstream diamond industry.
It includes supplying the trader with rough diamonds for five years through the state-owned Okavango Diamond Company (ODC).
According to Botswana’s central bank data, sales of rough diamonds at Debswana Diamond Company fell by 49.2%, amounting to $1.29 billion compared to $2.54 billion in the same period last year.
In local currency, sales of rough diamonds decreased by 47.3% to 17.555 billion pula compared to the same period last year.
This decline in sales is a major blow to the South African nation, which derives 30%-40% of its revenue, 75% of its foreign exchange earnings, and a third of its national output from sales of rough diamonds.
The report highlighted the downturn in the global diamond market as the primary reason for this sharp decline.
In response to the weak consumer demand, Anglo American cut its diamond production by 19% in the first six months of the year.
The report highlighted the downturn in the global diamond market as the primary reason for this sharp decline.
Botswana derives 30%-40% of its revenue, 75% of its foreign exchange earnings, and a third of its national output from sales of rough diamonds.
The Debswana Diamond Company is a joint venture between the government of Botswana and Anglo American Plc’s De Beers. Anglo American Plc’s De Beers sells 75% of its output to De Beers, while the balance is taken up by the state-owned Okavango Diamond Company.
Despite the current economic challenges, Botswana and De Beers signed a ten-year diamond sales agreement in June.
This deal will gradually see the share of Debswana’s output sold by the state-owned company increase from 25% to 30% before it goes up to 40% in five years and eventually 50% by the end of the new contract.
According to the key points in the agreement, this strategic move aims to boost Botswana’s revenue from its diamond resources.
Diamond exploration company Botswana Diamonds has been granted four prospecting licences – covering just under 2 332 km2 – in the Kalahari of Botswana.
The prospecting licences are in the same general area as Gem Diamonds’ Ghaghoo mine, as well as Botswana Diamonds’ own KX36 project.
“I am pleased that we have been awarded these prospecting licences in the Kalahari of Botswana, which we believe will be the next major diamond-producing area in the country.
“Exploration is a long game, particularly diamond exploration, and we believe the industry is going through a structural change which will see the natural product, particularly from Botswana, find its premium niche in world markets,” chairperson John Teeling comments.
Diamond processor and trader HB Antwerp said on Monday it had removed one of its three co-founders from management following differences over strategy, a development that comes amid a pending sales pact with major producer Botswana.
Oded Mansori, who co-founded HB Antwerp in 2020 with partners Shai de Toledo and Rafael Papismedov, said he was taking them to court over his removal.
“On September 1, HB terminated Mr Oded Mansori’s management role in all the HB Companies,” the Belgian company said in a statement, citing a “sharp difference in strategic vision and approaches to business”.
The government of Botswana, the world’s No. 1 diamond producer by value, said in March that it had agreed to buy a 24% stake in HB Antwerp. As part of the deal, state-owned Okavango Diamond Company would supply HB with an undisclosed quantity of rough diamonds for five years.
The deal is yet to be signed.
Mansori, a long-time diamond dealer, said in a separate statement that he was “determined to defend his vision and to fight for the wellbeing and the future of HB,” and that “a legal process is currently underway in court.”
Mansori, who declined to comment further, said he was still a shareholder in the company.
HB also has a partnership with Lucara Diamond Corp, buying stones of 10 carat quality and above from the Toronto-listed miner’s Karowe Mine in central Botswana at prices based on the estimated polished outcome of each diamond.
Lucara did not immediately respond to a request for comment on whether the legal tussle could impact its own deal with HB Antwerp.
In 2022, HB Antwerp partnered with Microsoft to track mined gems via blockchain, as consumers focus on clearing the supply chain of fraudsters and diamonds mined in war zones and sold to fund insurgencies.
Other diamond miners, including Anglo American’s unit De Beers, also use blockchain platforms to trace their diamonds and verify authenticity.
Botswana has reached an eleventh-hour deal with diamond giant De Beers after months of tense negotiations that saw the continent’s top producer threatening to cut ties with the storied company.
The Botswana government and Anglo-American, the majority owner of De Beers, have reached an “agreement in principle”, the two sides said in a statement issued late Friday.
The agreement provides for a new 10-year agreement to sell the rough diamonds produced by Debswana — a joint venture equally owned by the government and De Beers — and a 25-year extension of its mining licenses.
The agreement also gives Botswana an increased 30 percent of diamond production for sale via the state-owned Okavango Diamond Company, progressively increasing to 50 percent in the final year of the contract, De Beers said in a separate statement on Saturday.
No value was given for the agreement.
The previous 2011 sale agreement between the southern African country, one of the continent’s richest, and the world’s largest diamond company by value, was extended exceptionally until June 30, 2023, due to the coronavirus pandemic.
Under terms negotiated by the two sides in 2011, De Beers received 90 percent of the rough diamonds mined, while Botswana had 10 percent to sell itself.
In 2020, Botswana’s share was hiked to 25 percent.
President Mokgweetsi Masisi had threatened to cut ties with the company if the latest talks proved unfavourable for his country.
“If we don’t achieve a win-win situation each party will have to pack its bags and go,” he said in February.
The country turned up the heat the following month by announcing it would soon conclude an agreement to take a 24 percent stake in the Belgian diamond manufacturer HB Antwerp.
Last year, De Beers obtained about 70 percent of its rough diamonds from Botswana.
Diamond mining accounts for a third of the landlocked country’s GDP.
