The value of rough diamonds mined globally during 2023 fell by just over 20 per cent, down from $16bn in 2022 to $12.7bn according to the latest Kimberley Process (KP) figures.
The volume of diamonds mined fell by 7.6 per cent to 111.5m carats, and average per carat prices slipped almost 14 per cent from $132.27 to $114.10.
Production in Russia fell by 11 per cent, from 42m carats in 2022 to 37.3m carats, although average price carat actually increased by 14 per cent from $84.77 to $96.64. Exports were down 5 per cent to $3.68bn.
Botswana’s production volume increased slightly to 25.1m carats in 2023 but plunged 30 per cent by value, from $4.7bn in 2022 to $3.3bn.
The global diamond industry peaked in 2017, according to historical KP data, when production hit 150m carats, a 16 per cent leap from 126m carats the previous year.
It held firm at 149m carats in 2018, then slipped to 138m carats in 2019; 107m carats in 2020 (down 22 per cent) and 119m carats in 2021.
Petra Diamonds revised on Thursday its guidance for the next two fiscal years and appointed a new finance leader as part of its plans to lower expenses and debt in a clear sign the diamond market remains in bad shape.
The South African miner had anticipated in December that the sector was beginning to recover. Six months later, Petra has instead cut its production targets. It now expects to produce between 2.8 million and 3.1 million carats in fiscal 2025 and between 2.9 million and 3.3 million in fiscal 2026. This represents a reduction of 18% and 19%, respectively, on the prior target-ranges’ midpoint.
The company also said it expected total carat recovery to be at the lower end of its target range of 2.74 million to 2.78 million for the current fiscal year.
These downgrades, announced in an investor day presentation, coincide with Petra’s plan to reduce operating costs by $30 million annually starting in the fiscal year that ends on June 30, 2025. Total capital spending will be reduced this year to $100 million from the total spent in 2023, which was $117.1 million.
“We have worked hard to deliver an updated business profile in response to ongoing market challenges and to further enhance our resilience to future market and capital cycles,” chief executive Richard Duffy said in a statement.
Petra’s revisions come just a day after the world’s largest diamond producer by value, De Beers, posted disappointing results for its latest sales for the second time this year, and as Anglo American (LON: AAL) plans to sell it off.
New CFO
Petra announced it had appointed Johan Snyman to take on the role of chief financial officer starting from October 1. Snyman will replace Jacques Breytenbach, who will leave his position as CFO and director at the end of September due to personal reasons.
“[Snyman] has played a crucial part in the progress of Petra since joining in January, and I am excited to collaborate with him in his new capacity,” Duffy said.
The new CFO joined Petra this year as financial controller, having worked as vice president for financial reporting at AngloGold Ashanti (NYSE: AU). He has also previously held various financial roles in the mining sector.
Expansions unaffected
Despite the challenging market, Petra remains committed to expanding its Finsch and Cullinan mines in South Africa, it said, and it is projecting production to reach between 3.4 to 3.7 million carats by 2028.
Cullinan is Petra’s flagship mine and the source iconic diamonds, including the famed 3,106-carat Cullinan diamond, which was cut to form the 530-carat Great Star of Africa. They are the two largest diamonds in the British Crown Jewels.
The Cullinan mine is also a source of rare blue diamonds.
Petra’s planned output increase, equivalent to 15% to 17% over three years, will require about $100 million annually. Duffy stated the plans will be financed internally.
Cullinan mine-life can be potentially extended beyond 2048. Finsch, South Africa’s second largest diamond operation by output, could be producing until around 2038.
Shares in Petra experienced high volatility in London after the announcements and were last down 1.96% to 40 pence. This leaves the miner with a total market capitalization of £78.63 million (about $100m).
India’s exports of polished diamonds suffered a further drop in May, down by almost 15 per cent to $1.47bn.
But the year-on-year rate of decline shows some signs of slowing, according to new figures from the GJEPC (Gem and Jewellery Export Promotion Council).
It fell 20 per cent in January, 28 per cent in February, 27 per cent in March and 17 per cent in April.
Diamonds are faring significantly less well than India’s overall gems and jewelry sector, which saw revenue for April slip by 6 per cent to $2.48bn.
Manufacturers bought more diamonds year-on-year in April and May (up almost 2 per cent by volume) but the price slump means imports are down almost 10 per cent by value are down by almost 10 per cent to $2.39bn.
A diamond held by dop is polished on rotating automatic cast iron lap
Prices showed signs of stabilizing during April, with an even mix of increases and decreases in many sizes, especially fancy cuts. Overall there were more clusters of price rises than we have seen of late.
It’s too early to positively identify a clear upward trend, but the “end of the lab grown boom” is arguably having an impact. Lab grown prices are now so low – in some case just 10 percent of natural – that many jewelers are opting not to stock them in inventory and are only buying them on consignment.
In addition the G7 sanctions, in place since 1 March, are now starting to bite, and to slowly push up prices.
They have effectively restored the De Beers monopoly, although its rough production is down by almost a quarter so far this year (as is Rio Tinto’s) and rough sales remain sluggish (down 18 per cent on last year). Meanwhile polished exports from India fell by 27 per cent during March to $1.2bn
Minespider, a leading traceability platform for tracking minerals and raw materials, and Star Diamond Corp., a Canadian corporation engaged in the exploration, acquisition, and development of mineral properties, have partnered to launch the Diamond Passport and comply with the new G7 rules.
G7 countries have put a direct ban on Russian diamonds and agreed to establish a verification and certification mechanism for rough diamonds to prove their origin, ensuring diamonds are not mined, processed, or produced in conflict zones.
Having over 6 years of traceability experience with companies like Google, Minsur, LuNa Smelter, and others, Minespider introduced its own Diamond Passport in March this year. The Diamond Passport contains all key information about the diamond, including its provenance data, the diamond’s unique DNA, such as size, shape, color, carat, clarity, cut, and specific inclusions (natural flaws or imperfections), certificates from gemological laboratories and other documentation about the diamond.
“Through our partnership with Star Diamond, we intend to significantly strengthen the company’s position in diamond mining at large-scale mining spots in Canada. The diamond industry requires a new reliable mechanism for the verification and certification of rough diamonds based on traceability, and we are proud to support this significant change with our robust technology and extensive experience in mineral traceability.” said Nathan Williams, CEO and Founder, Minespider.
Star Diamond Corporation is striving to ensure that diamond mining in Saskatchewan is conducted responsibly, with a focus on improving environmental performance and accompanied by strong social performance.
“Star Diamond is excited to partner with the team at Minespider as we prepare for the eventual production and retailing of our world-class conflict-free Saskatchewan diamonds. It is our aim to provide wholesalers/retailers and end purchasers with a complete provenance report on all of our gem-quality diamonds. This will ensure that end purchasers may rest assured that the diamond they purchase for their loved one is conflict-free and ethically produced in Canada.” added Ewan Mason, President and CEO, Star Diamond Corporation.
Petra Diamonds sold fewer carats but achieved higher prices earlier this month at its fifth tender of FY 2024, boosted by the sale of an $8.2m blue diamond.
The UK-based miner achieved an average $136 per carat on sales of 362,000 carats for $49m.
Like-for-like figures for its fourth tender, in February, were $112 per carat on sales of 429,000 carats for $48m.
Sales for the year to date are, however, lagging behind FY 2023, at $285m, down 10 per cent down on $316m.
The 14.76ct exceptional color and clarity blue diamond recovered from Cullinan, South Africa, sold for $8.2m, although it was not classified as an “exceptional stone” (over $15m).
Total revenue for Q3 FY 2024 was $66m, down 27 per cent on the previous quarter, due to the lower production and the timing of receipts from the fifth tender.
“Production for the quarter is consistent with the preceding quarter and in-line with expectations.,” said CEO Richard Duffy.
Production guidance for FY 2024 is 2.75m to 2.85m carats.
Earlier this month Petra announced the sale of its loss-making Koffiefontein mine, in South Africa, to Dubai-based Stargems for a nominal sum.
Sarine recorded a $2.8m loss for 2023 as it battled macro-economic challenges in China and beyond, as well as increasing disruption from lab growns.
The Israel-based diamond tech business made an $8.8m profit the previous year. Revenue for 2023 was down 27 per cent to $42.9m.
Sarine said sales of equipment and the recurring scanning revenues that came from them had been hit by lower consumer demand and manufacturers’ reduced polishing activities.
Sales to India, its biggest single market by far, fell 27 per cent to $22m.
However it did sound a note of optimism after a “challenging year”, suggesting that a sharp fall in lab grown retail prices could lower retailers’ margins and make them less attractive.
“While it may be too early to call this a new trend, the slowdown could indicate that the natural diamond and LGD segments of the diamond jewellery market are reaching a new equilibrium,” the company said.
Sarine said it had launched its Most Valuable Plan (MVP) for the optimal planning of small rough diamonds and had adapted rough planning technologies to lab growns to attract new customers and generate additional recurring revenues.
Geologists from ETH Zurich and the University of Melbourne have established a link between diamond occurrence and the mineral olivine.
In a paper published in the journal Nature Communications, the scientists explain that their method will simplify the detection of diamond deposits. The process relies on the chemical composition of kimberlites, which occur only on very old continental blocks that have remained geologically unchanged for billions of years, predominantly in Canada, South America, central and southern Africa, Australia and Siberia.
According to the study’s lead author, Andrea Giuliani, olivine is a mineral that makes up around half of kimberlite rock and consists of varying proportions of magnesium and iron. The more iron olivine contains, the less magnesium it has and vice versa.
“In rock samples where the olivine was very rich in iron, there were no diamonds or only very few,” Giuliani, who has been studying the formation and occurrence of the gemstones since 2015, said in a media statement. “We started to collect more samples and data, and we always got the same result.”
His investigations ultimately confirmed that olivine’s iron-to-magnesium ratio is directly related to the diamond content of the kimberlite. Giuliani and his team took these findings back to De Beers, who had provided them with the kimberlite samples. The company was interested and provided the scientific study with financial support and asked the researchers not to publish the results for the time being.
A slow, repetitive process In 2019, Giuliani moved from Melbourne to ETH Zurich and, supported by the Swiss National Science Foundation, began to look for explanations for the connection between olivine’s magnesium and iron content and the presence of diamonds.
With his new colleagues, he examined how the process of metasomatism, which takes place in the earth’s interior, affects diamonds. In metasomatism, hot liquids and melts attack the rock. The minerals present in the rock react with the substances dissolved in the fluids to form other minerals.
The geologists analyzed kimberlite samples that contained olivines with a high iron content—and hence no diamonds. They discovered that olivine becomes richer in iron in the places where melt penetrates the lithospheric mantle and changes the composition of mantle rocks significantly. And it is precisely in this layer, at a depth of around 150 kilometres, that diamonds are present.
The infiltration of the melt that makes olivine richer in iron destroys diamonds. If, on the other hand, no or only a small amount of melt from underlying layers penetrates the lithospheric mantle and thus no metasomatism takes place, the olivine contains more magnesium—and the diamonds are preserved.
“Our study shows that diamonds remain intact only when kimberlites entrain mantle fragments on their way up that haven’t extensively interacted with previous melt,” Giuliani said.
A key point is that kimberlites don’t normally reach the earth’s surface in one go. Rather, they begin to rise as a liquid mass, pick up fragments of the mantle on the way, cool down and then get stuck. In the next wave, more melt swells up from the depths, entrains components of the cooled mantle, rises higher, cools, and gets stuck. This process can happen multiple times.
“It’s a real stop-and-go process of melting, ascent and solidification. And that has a destructive effect on diamonds,” Giuliani noted. If, on the other hand, conditions prevail that allow kimberlites to rise directly to the surface, then this is ideal for the preservation of the gemstones.
De Beers is already using olivine analysis Olivine analysis is as reliable as previous prospecting methods, which are mainly based on the minerals clinopyroxene and garnet. However, the new method is easier and faster: it takes only a few analyses to get an idea of whether a given kimberlite field has diamonds or not.
“The great thing about this new method is not only that it’s simpler, but also that it finally allows us to understand why the previous methods worked,” Giuliani said. “De Beers is already using this new method.”
Petra Diamonds’ rough prices started to bounce back at its latest tender, indicating the market has “likely bottomed,” it said Thursday.
The company’s third trading session brought in $67.9 million from the sale of 519,397 carats, at an average price of $131 per carat. Prices were 19% higher on a like-for-like basis — comparing similar categories of diamonds — than at the fiscal year’s second tender, which ended in October.
Last week, the miner reported early results from the tender of $58.7 million from 462,794 carats, at an average price of $127 per carat. During the remainder of the tender, it sold an additional 56,600 carats for $9.3 million. That comprised 25,200 carats from the Cullinan and Finsch mines in South Africa, which yielded $3.1 million, and 31,400 carats from the Williamson mine in Tanzania, bringing in $6.2 million.
Total rough-diamond revenue for the first fiscal half, which included three tenders, came to $187.8 million, down 7% year on year, the company noted. Like-for-like prices for the six months fell 13% compared to the equivalent three tenders the year before.
India saw a slump in polished-diamond exports but an increase in rough imports in October as global demand remained slow and manufacturers brought goods into the country ahead of a two-month shipment freeze.
Polished exports fell 33% year on year to $1.26 billion, the Gem & Jewellery Export Promotion Council (GJEPC) reported earlier this month. Inbound rough shipments rose 9% to $1.02 billion despite a two-month voluntary pause on imports aimed at reducing inventories. The policy came into effect on October 15.
A decline in rough prices ahead of the optional freeze and the Diwali holiday created an opportunity for Indian companies to buy, added GJEPC chairman Vipul Shah.
About the data: India, the world’s largest diamond-cutting center, is a net importer of rough and a net exporter of polished. As such, net polished exports — representing polished exports minus polished imports — will usually be a positive number. Net rough imports — calculated as rough imports minus rough exports — will also generally be in surplus. The net diamond account is total rough and polished exports minus total imports. It is India’s diamond trade balance, and shows the added value the nation creates by manufacturing rough into polished.
