India’s polished exports fell by almost 17 per cent in the fiscal year ending March 2025, to $13.29bn, according to the Gem and Jewellery Export Promotion Council (GJEPC).
That’s among the lowest annual export figures for two decades, although not, as widely reported, the lowest of all. The GJEPC figure for 2005 was $12.3bn, up from $10.3bn in 2004. By comparison 2023/4 foreign sales totaled $15.97m.
Overall gem and jewellery exports fell 11.7 per cent in 2024/5 to $28.5bn, the lowest figure in four years.
But there are signs of a recovery, with polished diamond exports for March showing a year-on-year decline of just 0.76 per cent to $1.16bn and gems and jewelry actually growing 1 per cent to $2.58bn.
“The decline in gems and jewellery exports is mainly due to the continuous dip in demand in China as well as the US, India’s key export markets, due to the ongoing geopolitical tensions,” said GJEPC Chairman Kirit Bhansali.
“Also, the correction in rough diamond prices by 10-15 per cent impacted the value, causing the overall decline in exports.”
India’s diamond industry is in shock today after the US imposed 26 per cent reciprocal tariffs on all its exports.
That’s almost double the 13.3 per cent predicted by India’s Global Trade Research Initiative before yesterday’s news (2 April).
Traders, manufacturers, exporters and others in India’s diamond industry are still struggling to process the scale of the announcement, made by President Donald Trump in what he called his Liberation Day speech, outlining tariffs that would boost domestic industry and “make America wealthy again”.
He said US tariffs would be roughly half those charged by each of its trade partners. India charges the US 52 per cent, he said, a figure that includes currency manipulation.
“The [gems and jewellery] trade is expected to come at a standstill as US importers will assess whether to place orders with Indian jewellery exporters,” said Kirit Bhansali, chairman of the Gem and Jewellery Export Promotion Council, reacting to the news.
“The tariff is higher than expected,” Colin Shah, managing director of Kama Jewelry. “It is quite severe and will affect exports.”
The US represents over 30 per cent of all India’s gem and jewelry exports, worth $10bn a year. Exports of loose diamonds to the US which currently attract no import duty – and gold jewelry, which is charged at 5.5 per cent to 7 per cent. The US has a trade deficit of $46bn with India.
Trump announced a raft of tariffs on trade partners around the world, claiming the US had been losing out for decades.
“They (India) are charging us 52 per cent and we charge almost nothing for years and years and decades,” said Trump during his announcement.
For decades, the president said, the US “has been looted, pillaged, raped and plundered by nations near and far, both friend and foe alike”.
The White House said India imposed “uniquely burdensome” non-tariff barriers. Removing them would increase US exports by at least $5.3bn annually.
The US announced a baseline tariff of 10 per cent on all countries (except Canada and Mexico), to be implemented on 5 April. Additional tariffs (as high as 49 per cent for Cambodia) will be introduced on 9 April for targeted countries.
The Chinese diamond market, second only to the US, is showing early signs of recovery, sparking optimism in India’s diamond industry. According to the Gem and Jewellery Export Promotion Council (GJEPC), this shift could reshape the global diamond manufacturing landscape.
China’s economic slowdown and declining marriage rates had severely impacted its diamond market, valued at approximately USD 9 billion. In 2023, diamond sales in China generated around USD 5.7 billion, but analysts project growth to USD 7.2 billion by 2030. Over the past two years, demand has dropped by as much as 50%, with wholesale diamond prices falling 40%. This downturn significantly affected India, which exports nearly a third of its cut and polished diamonds to China.
The impact was evident in India’s February 2024 gems and jewellery exports, which declined by 23.49% to USD 2.42 billion (Rs 21,085 crore), driven by weak demand from both the US and China. To counter this, GJEPC participated in the Hong Kong International Diamond, Gem & Pearl Show (DGP) earlier this month, showcasing 71 exhibitors across 116 booths in categories such as Loose Diamonds, Lab-Grown Diamonds, and Fine Jewellery.
Hong Kong, a key hub for India’s diamond trade, played a vital role in strengthening global ties. GJEPC Chairman Kirit Bhansali noted that stabilising prices and renewed Chinese demand are promising signs for the global diamond industry. He emphasized that India’s strong manufacturing capabilities and adaptability put it in a favorable position for long-term growth.
After a prolonged slump, buyers are now accepting current price levels, leading to steadier sales. GJEPC Vice Chairman Shaunak Parikh believes this renewed demand could shift India’s diamond manufacturing back towards natural diamonds. Industry insights indicate a resurgence, particularly in smaller diamonds, though a full-scale revival is still some way off.
According to Ajesh Mehta, Convener of the Diamond Panel at GJEPC, this year’s Hong Kong trade shows marked the first positive development in four to five years. While Chinese demand hasn’t returned to previous highs, price stabilisation and increased movement in smaller diamonds are encouraging. “Confidence is slowly returning, especially in diamonds below 10 points and dossier sizes,” Mehta said.
A shift in Chinese consumer preferences is also influencing the market. Retailers are now incorporating smaller diamond accents in gold jewellery instead of featuring diamonds as centrepieces. However, Mehta believes this trend is temporary, predicting a gradual return of confidence in larger stones, such as 30 to 50 points.
Beyond China, emerging markets like Cambodia, Vietnam, Brazil, and Venezuela are showing growing interest in larger stones. While they cannot replace China’s dominance, they are contributing to new demand pockets.
Devansh Shah, Partner at Venus Jewel, observed an increase in inquiries at the Hong Kong trade shows from diverse markets, including Europe, Australia, the US, and the UAE. He noted that Chinese and Far East buyers remain highly quality-conscious, with round brilliant diamonds attracting strong interest, while larger fancy cuts and 3-carat-plus rounds were available on an order-only basis.
Although the Chinese market’s resurgence remains gradual, it presents growth opportunities for India’s diamond cutting, polishing, and export sectors. With strategic planning and market adaptability, India is well-positioned to navigate this evolving landscape and sustain long-term industry growth.
India has been emerging as a bright spot for the cut and polished diamonds amidst a slowdown in key markets such as the US and China, Amit Pratihari, managing director, De Beers India told Reuters on Wednesday.
India is the world’s largest centre for cutting and polishing diamonds, accounting for nine out of 10 diamonds polished globally, according to Indian government data.
However, the country’s cut and polished diamond exports fell this year because of weak demand from China and the US, forcing the industry to focus on the growing domestic market that surpassed China last year to become the world’s second-largest.
“China has completely slowed down in the luxury segment … We see India growing very strongly,” Pratihari said in an interview.
De Beers, a unit of Anglo American, is the world’s top diamond producer by value and India’s number one supplier of rough diamonds.
However, there were some early signs of recovery in the US and “big growth” in the Middle East, Pratihari said.
“In next couple of months, we expect recovery,” he said.
Weak exports demand for polished diamonds forced Indian processors to trim imports of rough diamonds by 22% to $7.9 billion during April to December, according to India’s Gem and Jewellery Export Promotion Council (GJEPC).
De Beers is adjusting prices of rough diamonds to support the midstream industry – companies that buy rough diamonds from miners and sell them after cutting and polishing to retailers – in the face of polished diamond prices falling more than those of rough diamonds, he said.
“Miners are controlling the supply so more rough does not come into the market that would put additional pressure on the polished prices. But the pressure on polished prices is in midstream as in retail there is no change,” he said.
India’s cut and polished diamond exports fell by 8.3% to $9.76 billion in April-December compared with the 2023 period, according to GJEPC.
India’s government is being urged to adopt the same rules on lab grown terminology as the US.
The GJEPC (Gem & Jewellery Export Promotion Council) says its 7,000-plus members are now required to adhere to the rules introduced by the US Federal Trade Commission (FTC) in 2016 and amended two years later. They have also been adopted by many other countries.
“Since India’s gem and jewellery trade has unanimously accepted the FTC’s new definition with respect to diamonds, we urge the Indian government and ministries to accept, adopt and adapt the same to existing consumer laws of our country.”
The FTC provides detailed guidance on exactly what forms of words can be used. It says: “If you sell laboratory-created diamonds, you should tell consumers that they are not mined diamonds by describing them as “laboratory-grown,” “laboratory-created,” “[manufacturer name]-created,” or some other word or phrase of like meaning so as to disclose, immediately preceding the word “diamond” and equally conspicuously, the nature of the product and the fact it is not a mined diamond.”
Smit Patel, convener of the GJEPC’s lab-grown diamond panel, said: “We have urged the government to align with the advancements and economic significance of lab-grown diamonds by adopting a forward-looking policy framework.”
The Indian government says its Central Consumer Protection Authority (CCPA) has organized a stakeholder consultation on consumer protection for the diamond sector, following representations from the GJEPC.
A 19.22 carat diamond, recovered from a shallow mine by a part-time digger in India’s Panna district, sold at auction for $111,000 (Rs 93,79,360).
It was one of 29 diamonds sold by the Panna Diamond Office, as part of a deal in which farmers and laborers rent small patches of land from the government. The other 28 stones raised just over $28,000 between them.
Many of the stones recovered have failed to find buyers at the three-monthly auctions over the last two years, but demand picked up at this latest event, with large crowds of bidders in attendance.
Panna is said to be home to 1.2m carats. Part-time miners pay $2.70 for the rights to dig a 25ft square patch there and diamond finds are quite common.
In February 2022 a part-time prospector dug up a 26.11-carat diamond which later sold for at auction for $193,000.
Maruti Impex, described as one of the world’s biggest manufacturers of small natural diamonds, is halting operations, and has advised its 15,000 workers to seek employment elsewhere.
The company’s founder, Suresh Lakhani, aged 45, suffered a stroke three months ago and remains in a coma.
He’s been the driving force behind the business, which he launched in 1995 when he was just 16 years old. He is said to be the sole decision maker.
The future of Maruti Impex, which operates over 100 units, directly and indirectly, in Surat, Bhavnagar, Amreli, and Junagadh, is now uncertain.
Staff were informed of the closure by audio message, just as diamond units re-open after the Diwali break.
They received salaries up to the holiday, but have been told it’s not clear when operations could resume. The company made mention of “three or four months”.
Family members stepped in short term following Lakhani’s stroke, but have reportedly decided to pause operations because of weak market conditions.
Times of India quotes Dinesh Navadiya, chairman of the Indian Diamond Institute, as saying: “Without his (Lakhani’s) leadership and given the current challenging market conditions, the management is unable to continue operations.”
Lakhani describes himself on LinkedIn as a “self-made entrepreneur and philanthropist who has built a successful global business – “Maruti Impex” from scratch. Maruti Impex is one of the largest companies in the world in cut and polished diamonds.”
Hundreds of carats of diamonds unearthed by part-time diggers in India’s diamond-rich Panna district remain unsold after state-run auctions failed to attract buyers.
Farmers and laborers rent small patches of land from the government and regularly recover gems worth potentially life-changing sums.
But many of their finds have been unsold at recent auctions conducted by the Panna Diamond Office, as demand slumps globally and lab growns take ever larger shares of the market.
At the latest sale 64 diamonds, weighing 111.45 carats, were unsold, according to a Free Press report.
It said that in 2022-23, at least 139 diamonds, weighing 255.47 carats were unsold, and in 2021-22, there were unsold 68 diamonds, weighing 73.15 carats.
Panna is said to be home to 1.2m carats. Part-time miners pay $2.70 for the rights to dig a 25ft square patch there and diamond finds are quite common.
In May 2022 farmer Pratap Singh Yadav (pictured) recovered an 11.88-carat diamond and said he’d use proceeds from the sale of the stone to set up a business and pay for his children’s education.
In February of that year another part-time prospector dug up a 26.11-carat diamond which later sold for $193,000. And in February 2021 laborer Rampyare Vishwakarma unearthed a 14.09-ct diamond.
India’s exports of polished diamonds suffered yet another big fall in September, down 22.9 per cent, according to the latest figures from the GJEPC (Gem and Jewellery Export Promotion Council).
That’s a marginally better performance than August, when year-on-year exports were down by 23.8 per cent. Between April and September total foreign sales fell 20.6 per cent (all figures in US dollars).
Actual monthly sales tell a different story from year-on-year decreases. Total foreign sales for September were $1.29bn, compared to $1.04bn in August and $908m in July.
Across the whole gems and jewelry industry in India, gross exports were $2.54bn, down 15.9 per cent year-on-year (compared to 22.9 per cent for polished diamonds).
Exports of polished lab growns – still a tiny minority of all diamond sales – were down 16.5 per cent to $111m.
The Indian government is facing calls to adopt US guidelines to distinguish lab growns from natural diamonds.
The 10,000-member GJEPC (Gems and Jewellery Export Promotion Council) says there is widespread confusion in the way diamonds are marketed and advertised.
It says India should adopt the US Federal Trade Commission (FTC) guidelines, which say there must be a “clear and conspicuous” indicating that a diamond is man-made.
They also say the term “diamond” without qualification can only be used to refer to a natural, mined diamond.
And lab growns cannot be described as “real,” “genuine,” “natural,” or “precious” without additional qualifying language.
The GJEPC has written to India’s Department of Consumer Affairs calling for strict rules to differentiate between natural and lab grown.
“The absence of standardised guidelines on diamond terminology leads to ambiguity,” it says.
“And there are no mandatory disclosure requirements to indicate whether a diamond is lab-grown or natural to the consumer.”
